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Polls, Pundits, or Prediction Markets: An assessment of election forecasting

Election predictions forecasting proper scoring rule fivethirtyeight political science prediction market Brier score calibration accuracy Kelly criterion

Cite as:

Harry Crane (2018). Polls, Pundits, or Prediction Markets: An assessment of election forecasting. RESEARCHERS.ONE, https://www.researchers.one/article/2018-11-6.

Abstract:

I compare forecasts of the 2018 U.S. midterm elections based on (i) probabilistic predictions posted on the FiveThirtyEight blog and (ii) prediction market prices on PredictIt.com. Based on empirical forecast and price data collected prior to the election, the analysis assesses the calibration and accuracy according to Brier and logarithmic scoring rules.  I also analyze the performance of a strategy that invests in PredictIt based on the FiveThirtyEight forecasts.