Under Review

The Fundamental Principle of Probability

Replication crisis p-value probability confidence interval skin in the game asymmetry risk replication reproducibility statistical inference

Cite as:

Harry Crane (2018). The Fundamental Principle of Probability. RESEARCHERS.ONE, https://www.researchers.one/article/2018-08-16.


I make the distinction between academic probabilities, which are not rooted in reality and thus have no tangible real-world meaning, and real probabilities, which attain a real-world meaning as the odds that the subject asserting the probabilities is forced to accept for a bet against the stated outcome.  With this I discuss how the replication crisis can be resolved easily by requiring that probabilities published in the scientific literature are real, instead of academic.  At present, all probabilities and derivatives that appear in published work, such as P-values, Bayes factors, confidence intervals, etc., are the result of academic probabilities, which are not useful for making meaningful assertions about the real world.